Showing posts with label depression. Show all posts
Showing posts with label depression. Show all posts

Monday, November 21, 2016

Bush Crashed America, Obama Brought It Back: How Could the Dems Lose?

In the wake of Trump’s electoral victory, commentators of all political persuasions are castigating the Democratic Party for ignoring the concerns of rural voters, the flyover states, and working-class Americans in general. 

The irony is that it was the Democratic administration of Barak Obama that relieved the gravest concerns of these constituencies, who lost jobs and homes in the wake of the 2007-2008 Bush Financial Crisis, and regained them under the Obama Recovery. 

If concerns remained, it was only because the Democratic Party and the campaign of Hillary Clinton failed to deliver this winning economic message.  Left to the mercies of a lying demagogue, it is no wonder that ordinary Americans believe they are worse off because of “liberal” Democratic policies.

The George W. Bush Crash was the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.  Because of deregulation and lax oversight by the Republican administration, investment houses lied about the riskiness of their securities, covertly traded unrated securities in the shadow banking system, and accumulated debt without regard to risk.  Risky mortgages were pushed on ordinary consumers, who piled on more debt, and risky securities were represented as gilt-edge to unknowing consumers and managers of public finances.  Then the crisis hit:

·        At the height of the crisis, in September 2008, there was a bank run on money market funds that threatened to collapse the entire US financial system.
·        Treasury Secretary Hank Paulsen asked Congress for a $700 billion bailout for the Wall Street banks.
·        By the time the markets had stabilized, US unemployment doubled to 10.1%, and median household wealth fell by 35%. 
·        Housing prices dropped 20% from their 2006 peak.
·        People lost their homes when they could no longer pay their mortgages.

If Americans have economic concerns today, there is the cause.  If Americans’ financial well-being has stagnated, it is because they have been catching up from the Bush Crash. 

The story is a simple one:  Republicans deregulated the financial system, Wall Street bankers made money, and ordinary Americans lost their jobs and their homes.  To add insult to injury, Wall Street was bailed out while the ordinary taxpayer paid the bill.

The report of the U.S. Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission says that “the crisis was avoidable” and that it was caused by these failures of Bush-era oversight:

·         Widespread failures in financial regulation
·         Dramatic breakdowns in corporate governance
·         Too many financial firms acting recklessly
·         Excessive borrowing and risk by households and Wall Street
·         Key policy makers ill prepared for the crisis
·         Systemic breaches in accountability and ethics at all levels

It has taken until now – eight years – for the economy to recover from the Bush Crash of 2008.  And how did we come back?  It was the Democratic administration of President Barak Obama that brought us back from the brink, and held things together while the banks were nursed back to health and employment recovered.  It was the greatest economic comeback since the end of the Great Depression.

Did we hear about this from Hillary?  Did she position the Democrats as the champions of ordinary Americans?  Did she take a clue from Bernie’s broader appeal?

Whatever the outcome in the Electoral College this time, remember that a majority of voters chose a more enlightened and democratic way.  At the next election, a progressive Democratic message will give voters a clear choice.  

But you need to make sure that Americans hear the message, care about it, and vote for it.

Monday, February 9, 2009

Japanese Economy Decelerates

Hakuin Ekaku (1685 to 1768) drawing of Bodidharma, who brought Zen Buddhism to China, with Japanese calligraphy: “Point directly at the human mind, see one's nature, and become Buddha.”


In the aptly-named article Japan faces 'unimaginable' contraction the Financial Times announced several bad items of news about the Japanese economy today.

Kazuo Momma, head of the research and statistics department at the Bank of Japan, gave a speech today in which he provided an advance impression of Japan's fourth quarter 2008 economic product data, which are scheduled to be announced next week. Momma said "From October to December the scale of negative growth may have been unimaginable -- and we have to consider the possibility that there could be even greater decline between January and March."

Polls of economists suggest that the fourth quarter data may indeed be "unimaginable". They predict a fall in GDP of more than 3% from the previous quarter, or a decline of more than 10% at an annualized rate. A separate report by Tokyo Shoko Research said that the number of corporate bankruptcies in Japan rose 16% year-over-year in January, and total debts of failed companies rose 44% year over year.

One of the themes recently espoused in this blog is that many other nations are more vulnerable to the economic slowdown than is the US, and here we have evidence of this thesis from Japan. This is bad news for the US as for the rest of the world, because all economies are simultaneously providing decelerating feedback to each other.
Ito Jakuchu (1716-1800), Chrysanthemums by a Stream with Rocks

Thursday, February 5, 2009

More Bad News as Financial Collapse Continues

Scrooge and Bob Cratchit, from A Christmas Carol by Charles Dickens, illustrated by John Leech in 1843


As in earlier deflationary bear periods, the stock markets react with sporadic rallies every once in a while. Unlike the reformed Scrooge, who shared his good spirits and bounty with those around him, our markets's good spirits are more than a bit premature.

The last two days have brought lots of bad economic and financial news. Some people will this as a contrary indicator of a market rally to come, but when you consider the depth of the debt load to be worked off in the US, however, I think that the negative news is just one more step in a long and bumpy downward slope. The headlines reveal deep underlying problems that will take some time to work out. It seems very unlikely that the downward spiral will end soon.

US credit card delinquencies at record high

Consumers continue to be crushed by high debt and unemployment. For the month of January, US credit card delinquencies hit a record high, payments at least 60 days late rose almost half a percentage point last month to a record 3.75 per cent, and credit card lenders wrote off loans to delinquent borrowers at nearly record levels.

New jobless claims surge to 26-year high

It is highly likely that US consumers will be pinched harder in coming months as unemployment continues to increase. First-time claims for state unemployment insurance rose to 626,000 during the last week in January, which was the highest since October 1982. The number of people remaining on the jobless benefit rolls hit a record high.

Factory orders drop 3.9 percent in December

Economic output continues to decline. U.S. factory orders fell for a record fifth straight month in December. The Commerce Department announced that orders dropped by 3.9 percent during the month, an even bigger decline than the 3 percent that economists had predicted. Not only is domestic demand falling, but exports are falling due to the worldwide downturn.

Russia, East Europe Stocks Face ‘Massive’ Drop, Roubini Says

Stock markets are declining overseas, and the risk of further declines is high. Nouriel Roubini predicted that Russian and eastern European equities may fall further because earnings and other fundamental measures mean little in the current economic turmoil. Russia's RTS index fell 72 percent and the NTX index of central and east European stocks fell 57 percent in 2008. However, during an interview in Moscow, Roubini warned that “In market dynamics, prices can move far below what fundamentals justify.” He also warned: “There is still a massive downside for equities in the region.”

Britain 'headed' for deepest slump in 60 years

The bad news from Britain continues. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research forecasts that the sharpest plunge in consumer spending since the Second World War will drive Britain this year into its deepest economic slump since World War II. Consumer spending this year is set to plummet by 3.8 per cent. This is twice the previous record annual drop of 1.6 per cent in 1991, and is in contrast to an average increase of 3.5 percent annually over the past decade.

Obama hits back at stimulus critics, says failure to approve bill could bring catastrophe

President Obama has attached a great deal of urgency to the economic stimulus legislation that is working through Congress, which seems fitting at a time when the economic downturn is assuming threatening proportions and the news worsens daily. Speaking out in reaction to the Republican opposition that threatens to stall the bill, the President warned that failure to act quickly "will turn crisis into a catastrophe and guarantee a longer recession." Not everyone agrees that a stimulus will reduce the severity of the downturn, but the economic situation is indeed getting bad.

The Collapse Continues

News like this will continue for some months to come. The direction of the markets is probably down too.


Poster for the "War of Wealth" by Charles Turner Dazey, a play inspired by the Panic of 1893, opened February 10, 1896.



Thursday, December 11, 2008

US Default and Dollar Devaluation

The government poured billions of taxpayer dollars into the banks and the GSEs to keep the credit markets working. Not only are credit markets still dysfunctional, but we are on the deflationary expressway to depression.


WPA: unemployed shown at Volunteers of America Soup Kitchen: Washington, D.C. (Circa 1936). Courtesy of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Library Digital Archives, National Archives and Records Administration. http://www.fdrlibrary.marist.edu/images/photodb/27-0637a.gif

The latest idea for greasing the rusty credit system came out of Washington yesterday, as Jon Hilsenrath and Damian Paletta of the Wall Street Journal reported in Fed Weighs Debt Sales of Its Own. The Fed is considering asking Congress for permission to directly issue its own debt, not tied to Treasuries.

The prospect of another source of US debt issuance has naturally raised a lot of eyebrows. For example, Jesse's Cafe Americain was asking Is the Fed Taking the First Steps Toward Selective Default and Devaluation?

What an image. The NY Fed as a GSE, the new and improved Fannie and Freddie. Zimbabwe Ben can simply print a new class of Federal Reserve Notes with no backing from Treasuries. BenBucks. Federal Reserve Thingies.

Perhaps we're missing something, but this looks like a step in anticipation of an eventual partial default or devaluation of US debt and the dollar.

It is prudent to consider this risk. In an earlier posting, Will Quantitative Easing Crater the Dollar?, we have seen Nouriel Roubini's warning that the Fed's quantitative easing

... will eventually leads to much higher real interest rates on the public debt and weaken the US dollar once this tsunami of implicit and explicit public liabilities and monetary debt driven by rising twin fiscal and current account deficits will hit a world where the global supply of savings is shrinking – as most countries moves to fiscal deficits thus reducing global savings – and foreign investors start to ponder the long term sustainability of the US domestic and external liabilities.

But when will this "eventually" occur? There are good reasons to believe that the big risks lie rather far in the future.

So far, money injected by the Fed seems to be falling into a deflationary pit ... that is, it is not effectively offsetting money lost as the private financial system deleverages. And borrowers and lenders are all extremely risk averse right now.

So, the risks of default or dollar devaluation appear to be mainly in the future -- after the financial crisis ameliorates, credit starts flowing, and the economy shows some signs of life again.

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Kill the Canary

Once the Arsenal of Democracy, Michigan has suffered from a weak economy for years now. Now that the depression is approaching, things are worse than ever with the cyclical economy of Detroit.

Congress only wants to dribble out the money, maybe to keep Big 3 from immediate bankruptcy.

Wake up, Congress. Detroit is the canary in the coal mine. After it fails, the rest of the dominoes are falling too.

If the auto industry goes under, so many other businesses will fail that we won't have to guess about the start of the depression. It will be here with a vengeance.

Friday, December 5, 2008

Paulson Should Wake Up and Fight the Depression

Robert Reich has joined the ranks of those saying that the economy is falling off a cliff. His latest blog entry, "Shall We Call It a Depression Now", takes note of Friday's alarming unemployment report -- the US has lost nearly 1.2 million jobs in the past three months -- and makes the appropriate conclusions about where the economy is headed. With consumers cutting back spending in the face of historically high indebtedness, tightening credit, and failing job prospects, there are very real risks that we are heading toward a depression. Someone needs to be bailed out, but who is it?

If the heart of the economy is the consumer, government's response should act directly to help the consumer. It's that simple, and Robert Reich's prescription is exactly in that direction, with this two-pronged approach:

First, the massive Treasury bailout of the financial industry must be redirected toward Main Street -- loans to small businesses, distressed homeowners, and individuals who are still good credit risks.

Second, a stimulus package must be enacted right away. It needs to be more than $600 billion -- which is 4 percent of the national product.

Stimulus Should Include Essential Services

Robert Reich's prescription for avoiding depression (see preceding post) includes an important point about the composition of the necessary stimulus package:

Construction jobs are critical but so are elder care, hospital, child care, welfare, and countless other services that are getting clobbered.

As I have said before in "Policy for Financial Crisis Should Target Those Most in Need", those who suffer most in this downturn will be those who are already most in need. Reich's prescription will help to meet those needs. It will also be the most effective solution for the whole economy . . .

This is supposed to be a service economy. It isn't going to be stimulated if service jobs aren't included in the stimulus package.

Lots of infrastructure is decaying in this country, and that includes the people and systems that comprise our social, educational, health and other kinds of human infrastructure. It isn't just a matter of bricks and bridges. We need to nourish and grow our human capital if this company is going to face the future as a thriving enterprise.

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Depression Level Unemployment

Mish Shedlock has a thoughtful posting about trends in unemployment and their likely effects on the deflationary trajectory of the economy. In Prepare For Depression Level Unemployment Mish estimates:
Given that job losses are accelerating and that unemployment is a lagging indicator (unemployment is expected to rise for some number of months after the economy bottoms), it is not unreasonable to be talking about 10% unemployment sometime in 2010, with 8.5% to 9% or higher extremely likely.

8.5% or higher unemployment is enormously deflationary with the current backdrop of consumer debt and huge numbers of people underwater on their homes.

Unemployment was much higher during the Great Depression, but these are sobering estimates nonetheless.

Source:
"Prepare For Depression Leel Unemployment"
Mish's Global EconomicTrend Analysis
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/prepare-for-depression-level.html